Articles and Books

1. “Quantifying Care Management: Emerging Technology Quantifies ROI for Care Management Programs” Christian Birkmeyer and Ian Duncan, FSA, FIA, FCIA, MAAA. June 1, 2009 (Click to read more)

2. “Harnessing the Forces of Marketing and Innovation" Ian Duncan FSA, MAAA (This essay won second prize in a thought-leadership essay contest sponsored by the Society of Actuaries) (Click to read more)

3. “Three Issues Health Insurers Face as AHIP Kicks Off” Les Masterson. HealthLeaders Media, June 3, 2009. (Click to read more)

4. "Predictive Modeling, Stratification Improve Disease Management Risk Profiling" Ian Duncan,FSA,FIA,FCIA,MAAA. November 1, 2008. (Click to read more)

5. "Wellness Gains Steam- Industry Taking Broader View of Programs". Population Health Insider, Volume 1 (1) November 2008. (Click here to Download)

6. "New Tool From Solucia’s Holding Company Helps Plot Program ROI" Russell A. Jackson. Predictive Modeling News, Volume 1 (10) October 2008. (Click here to Download)

7. "Managing and Evaluating Healthcare Intervention Programs" Ian Duncan, FSA,FIA,FCIA,MAAA
(Click to read more)

8. "Care And Disease Management: An Actuarial Response" Ian Duncan. Benefits & Compensation Digest, 42 (8) August 2005. (Click here to Download)

9. "Measurement of ROI/Effectiveness of Medical Management Processes" Ian Duncan, Record, Society of Actuaries, Volume 30, (1). ((Click to read more))

10. "A comparative analysis of chronic and non-chronic insured commercial member cost trends" by Ian Duncan, Robert Bachler and Iver Juster. North American Actuarial Journal, 10 (4) October 2006. (Click here to Download)

11. "Its time for the Industry to move on from ROI" by Ian Duncan, from Disease Management 7 (3) 2004.
(Click here to Download)

12. "Its Time for the Industry to Move on From ROI", Disease Management, 7 (3) October, 2004. Available from Solucia on Request. (Click here to Request a Copy)

13. "A comparative analysis of claims-based methods of health risk assessment." Robert Cumming, FSA MAAA, for the Society of Actuaries (2002). The most comprehensive evaluation published comparing different risk-adjustment and predictive models. Available Free of Charge on Request. (Click here to Request a Copy)

14. "Does a High Deductible Plan Lead to Good Purchasing Decisions?" Ian Duncan. Contingencies, July/August 2004. (Click here to Download)

15. "New, integrated model of care targets risk rather than disease" Published in Disease Management Advisor, April 2007. Dorothy Brooks, editor. (Click here to Download)

16. "New Strategies in Disease and Utilization Management: Substituting Facts for Assumptions" Record, Society of Actuaries, 29(2) June 2003. ((Click to read more))

17. "A Prediction Model for Targeting Low-Cost, High-Risk Members of Managed Care Organizations" (with Henry Dove, Ph. D. and Arthur Robb, Ph. D.). Am. J. Mgd. Care, May 2003. Winner of DMAA prize for best published paper in 2003. (Re-prints available from Solucia (Click here to Request a Copy) or for download: ((Click to read more))

18. "Population Risk Management", Health Section News, Society of Actuaries. June, 2002.
((Click to read more) )

19. "Population Risk Management: Reducing Costs and Managing Risk in Health Insurance." (with Arthur Robb, Ph. D.) in Arnold Shapiro, ed : "Intelligent and other Computational Techniques in the Insurance Industry." (World Scientific, December 2003). (Available as a book only, on request from Solucia. Price $135 including postage.) (Click to Order)

20. "Measuring the Total Cost of Lost Time" (with Jonathon Crane, Ph. D.) in Janet R. Douglas: Managing Workers' Compensation. John Wiley, 1996. Out of Print. Reprints are available from Solucia on request.
(Click here to Request a Copy)

21. "Benchmarking and Cost Control" in Janet R. Douglas: Managing Workers' Compensation. John Wiley, 1994. Out of Print. Reprints are available from Solucia on request. (Click here to Request a Copy)

22. "Dictionary of Disease Management Terminology." Edited by Ian Duncan, FSA, MAAA for the Disease Management Association of America (2004). Soft cover only. Price $85, includes S&H. (Click to Order)

23. "Guide to Disease Management Outcomes Evaluation." Disease Management Association of America (2004). Soft cover only. Price $65, includes S&H. (Click to Order)

24. "Return on Investment and Savings Methodology: Improving the Validity of Outcomes." Ian Duncan, FSA MAAA, Alfred Lewis, JD and Ariel Linden, PhD. (2005). The Disease Management Purchasing Consortium White Paper. Price $300, includes S&H. (Click to Order)